Statusrapport
Police Threat Assessment 2021, Norway
New establishment, expansion of international criminal networks and recruitment of young people It is likely that international criminal networks will seek to establish or expand their criminal activities in Norway. It is also likely that expansion and establishment will increase recruitment and tensions and lead to serious violent incidents. In case of expansion and new establishment, gangs need to recruit people to gang crime to bolster their position. It is highly likely that criminal groups will continue their recruitment of young people into gang crime, and that this will increase in connection with expansion and new establishment. Potentially violent individuals with serious mental disorders There are reports of an increase in incidents of people with serious mental disorders and problems with drugs or alcohol perpetrating serious violence and threats, and it is likely that the incidence of individuals committing acts of serious violence will rise. This is based on e.g. changes to the conditions for committal to psychiatric hospital. Family members sexually abusing children, and domestic violence Higher levels of unemployment and economic recession correlate strongly with increased risk of alcohol and drug abuse, anxiety disorders and depression. This may in turn lead to greater risk of physical or sexual abuse and neglect, both by people who are already abusive and people who have no such history. As a consequence, it is likely that some people will commit more physical and sexual abuse of family members. There is an even chance that children who have not previously suffered physical or sexual abuse by family members will become victims of such offences. Network intrusion with ransomware It is highly likely that there will be multiple successful network intrusions with ransomware against Norwegian enterprises. This is based on the steady rise in incidents in recent years and the potential for high profits. There is an even chance that enterprises with critical functions will suffer network intrusions. Employers evading tax through undeclared labour It is likely that there will be an increase in employers using undeclared labour. This is based on the greater demand for labour in sectors where tax crime and labour exploitation is rife. Growing sectors such as transport of goods and construction are particularly at risk. Illegal fishing and under-reporting of catches in the fishing industry Illegal fishing is camouflaged through under-reporting. There has been substantial and systematic under-reporting in parts of the industry for many years. It is assessed as highly likely that certain members of the industry will continue high-scale illegal fishing with under-reporting and misreporting of catches. This type of crime includes various forms of economic crime and employer crime. Illegal fishing is also environmental crime, as it undermines the sustainability of Norwegian fisheries management. Misuse of identity documents by foreign nationals Misuse of identity documents is a facilitator of various types of crime. The introduction of travel restrictions in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, with stricter border controls, fuels the need to enter Norway by fraudulent means. It is highly likely that a higher number of people will illegally enter Norway as so-called impostors, i.e. fraudulently using genuine identity documents issued to other people.