Evaluering
Mid-Term Evaluation Of Norway-Colombia-GGGI Green Growth Programme 2020-2023 : Desentralisert evaluering/Norad Collected Reviews 9-23
Objective of the evaluation The objective of this assignment is to conduct an independent mid-term evaluation of the second phase of the financial support of the Kingdom of Norway to Global Green Growth Institute’s Colombia Country Programme 2020-2023. The evaluation seeks to generate knowledge from the implementation of Phase II, reflecting on challenges, identify lessons learned, and propose recommendations for possible future phases of support. The evaluation examines the relevance, effectiveness, impact, efficiency and sustainability of the programme’s results (the evaluation matrix is presented in Annex 1). The findings are based on the triangulation of data collected through the in-depth review of key documents, remote interviews to GGGI, Embassy of Norway, national and subnational counterparts (21 interviewees) and field visits to two priority regions (Putumayo and Antioquia), where interviews with the programme team, partners and beneficiaries (19 interviewees) were conducted and direct observation was carried out. Description of Phase II Since 2017, the Kingdom of Norway has provided funding to GGGI Colombia with the intention of supporting the country’s transition towards a greener growth pathway that is socially inclusive and contributive to its medium-term development agenda. The Norway-Colombia-GGGI Green Growth Programme was developed to support this intention, and has two date been divided in two phases: Phase I, which took place between 2017 and 2019, and Phase II between 2020 and 2023. The programme’s Phase II expected impact is “reduced deforestation and secured provision of ecosystem goods and services, improved climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustained and socially inclusive green growth”. The design of the programme planned to deliver the expected impact through two components. Component 1 focuses on strengthening the country’s institutional effectiveness to reduce deforestation and to promote sustainable landscapes through policy, regulatory and financing frameworks. Component 2 aims to scale up the development and implementation of inclusive sustainability projects and initiatives which promote forest conservation, restoration, and the sustainable use of natural resources, while improving livelihoods, ecosystem services and resilience. With an estimated financing of USD 7 million, the second phase originally covered a period of 36 months (March 1, 2020 – February 28, 2023), but a 6 months no-cost extension until August 31, 2023, was recently approved to mitigate the time-associated risks derived from COVID and the national strike; and to provide support during the transition period with the new national administration for the 2022-2026 presidential term. Findings Relevance The programme is well aligned with Colombia’s NDC 2020 and supports the country’s progress towards achieving the SDGs. It is coherent with Joint Declarations of Intent 2015 and 2019 and is in line with the overall goal of NICFI. The good alignment of the programme with Colombia’s international commitments can be explained by both GGGI’s knowledge of the Government priorities, as well as by the great involvement of Government and Norway during the design and implementation of the programme. The programme is also in tune with GGGI’s global Strategy 2030 and the Country Planning Framework 2016-2020. The programme is consistent with national and subnational strategies and priorities in the areas of reducing deforestation (National Development Plan 2018-2012 and 2019-2022, National Policy for Deforestation Control and Sustainable Forest Management, Integrated Strategy for the Control of Deforestation and Sustainable Forest Management, National Programme on Payment for Ecosystem Services, Law 1955 from 2019), biodiversity conservation (National System of Protected Areas), green growth (Green Growth Policy), climate change mitigation (National Climate Change Policy, National Strategy for Low Carbon Development, Law 2169 from 2021), and climate change adaptation (Strategy 2050). It has contributed to the development of some policies, strategies and plans on these topics and the achievement of other types of targets (see below and Table 11), has worked closely with the previous administration and is working hard to ensure alignment with the upcoming one. In addition, the objectives and activities of the programme respond to some of the problems, needs and priorities of the regions, departments and municipalities where it focuses, where the programme has supported the development of laws, policies, plans and strategies and promoted sustainable landscape management. The programme has contributed to the subnational implementation of national policies. For instance, the support provided by GGGI to Antioquia's Ordenanza 37 from 2022 is aligned with the Deforestation CONPES 4021 and the support provided to nature tourism business plans in several regions of the country is in tune with the Green Growth CONPES 3934. The programme has established and used effective and adequate coordination mechanisms with other stakeholders, both government and development partners, both internally (Project Steering Committee and Technical Committee) and externally (technical roundtables, knowledge exchange events and coordination workshops). These mechanisms have allowed good synergies, particularly with The Sustainable Colombian Fund, a government-led initiative financed by Norway, Switzerland and Sweden, and the Colombia “Tropical Forest Alliance, financed by the World Economic Forum. Effectiveness and Impact From a systemic perspective, the programme has made an important contribution to decrease deforestation, both at the national and subnational level, particularly regarding the enabling environment, with some of the impact of the programme likely becoming more visible in the medium to long term. At the national level, the programme has strengthened the enabling environment by supporting the development and implementation of laws, policies and strategies, the strengthening of land use monitoring systems, the provision of data, the delivery of knowledge products and management tools, the provision of training, the strengthening of institutional arrangements, the development of economic and financial tools for the implementation of green and sustainable practices, and, overall, by advocating for a forestry economy. At the subnational level, the programme has supported forest conservation and reforestation in key hotspots by supporting the development of laws, policies, plans and strategies and promoting sustainable landscape management, which reduces pressures over forests. However, implementation on the ground has been limited and the programme was not meant to directly address some key drivers of deforestation, particularly those more related to safety and security issues. The results framework of the programme has room for improvement. That said, the achievement of targets is satisfactory. At impact level, as of January 2023, the programme had exceeded one end of the programme target1 and met another one2. The programme had exceeded one target3 and will likely meet the other by the revised end of the programme4, if potential for implementation and mobilization are considered, and would not meet them if actual implementation and mobilization are considered. At the outcome/output level, as of October 2022, 32% of the targets had been met, 50% were on track and 5% had been exceeded. Progress on Component 1 exceeds that of Component 2 mainly due to the nature of the targets and the focus of the programme. The quality of outputs is adequate. The programme is contributing to poverty reduction, social inclusion, and gender equality, but there are opportunities to strengthen the gender approach and its impacts. Priority has been given to vulnerable communities but as of October 2022 impacts at the ground level remained limited. The programme has exceeded targets on capacity building events and technical guidelines and has delivered some unexpected results at the national and subnational levels mostly through the use of flexible resources. Efficiency The risks identified at the beginning and their defined mitigation actions were adequate and have continued to be throughout implementation. The programme showed a high capacity for adaptive management, particularly evident in the context of COVID-19, although there is room for improvement in reporting risk management. There have been some delays, but the project continues to be on track to achieve its targets. Implementation at the national level has been adequate, but more support is required at the regional level, which can be strengthened by placing more staff on the ground. A differentiator aspect of the project has been the establishment of flexible resources, which have allowed for quick support at the national and subnational level and on key actions not initially identified. This has further supported ownership of the programme, given that, as noted, GGGI has worked very closely with national and subnational governments. Coordination and communication with the Embassy of Norway has been effective, with reporting exceeding original commitments. Despite a change in two key management positions halfway through the project, no adverse effects to the programme’s operations were presented. The number of visits by the Embassy of Norway has been limited. Sustainability Although some conditions have been established to give sustainability to the programme’s results, the programme did not include a deliberate, comprehensive and structured exit strategy and one has not been developed. As of December 2022, the legal, policy, institutional and technical frameworks will contribute to the sustainability of programme’s results, but more efforts are required in the social, financial and environmental and climate change aspects, which if not addressed pose significant risks to the sustainability of the programme’s results. The programme has increased GGGI’s visibility in the country through the effective implementation of its Strategic Communication’s Plan. 1 The indicator and target read: Four officially adopted subnational development plans incorporate Sustainable Landscapes/reduced deforestation targets as a result of the influence of the programme. As of January 2023, the programme had influenced the adoption of 10 plans. 2 A green sustainable financial instrument is implemented in two prioritized regions. As of January 2023, the government had approved one, which will likely be implemented. 3 USD 30 million investment mobilized. As of January 20223, the programme is expected to mobilize USD 34.1 m. 4 50,000 ha under sustainable/restorative productive systems and under adoption/implementation. As of January 2023, the programme is expected to contribute to between 24,297 ha and 44,724 ha. Lessons 1. The sustainable use of natural resources and economic growth are compatible and green growth, particularly around the forest economy, highly advisable in Colombia 2. Holistic, inter-disciplinary, inter-sectoral, multi-stakeholder and multi-level approaches are key to sustainable development. When working on various aspects sequentially (for instance policy and implementation), it is critical for a programme to know when to switch its focus. 3. Embedded support is an effective technical assistance modality when a programme starts to move from policy to implementation on the ground. However, it is not that effective when implementation on the ground needs to gain speed and scale up to ensure a critical mass. At that point, more human resources and complementary skills are needed. In this sense, switching the focus of a programme implies a switch in the structure and skill set of the implementation teams. 4. Working with all governments and developing policies that go beyond one administrative period is key. That said, it is important to seize the opportunity that an interested government represents, and extend programmes when the context is favourable. 5. Flexible resources are interesting (they foster the alignment with national and regional priorities, increase trust and enable quick responses to the needs of key counterparts), as long as they are aligned with the programme and approved by the Steering Committee 6. Given that deforestation is driven by multiple factors, reducing it requires holistic approaches and very effective coordination, participating in existing coordination mechanisms and managing/leading them when required, as well as creating new ones when needed and feasible. 7. In Colombia, illegal activities are key drivers of deforestation. The ability of programmes that do not directly address those drivers to reduce deforestation is moderate. 8. To strengthen its effectiveness and impact, a programme requires a robust ToC and results framework at the impact, outcome and output levels, and consistent and both strategic and detailed reporting. Recommendations Based on the above-mentioned findings, the evaluation team proposes the action plan outlined in Table 1